Deloitte: COVID-19 Economics Monitor


by Deloitte

In our latest GDP forecast we assume that the lockdown in England during the month of November, followed by elevated restrictions in the UK throughout the winter, will drive a GDP contraction in the last quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. We expect the downturn in GDP to be smaller than in the first half of 2020, given briefer and less severe restrictions, increased business preparedness, and continued fiscal and monetary support. In the spring and summer of 2021 we expect the recovery to pick up steam in line with the dissipation of the virus observed during the warmer months of 2020 and the probable availability of a vaccine for at least more vulnerable cohorts of the population.

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