Ipsos poll shows economic optimism falls to lowest since 2008 financial crash

By Ipsos Mori

76% think the economy will get worse in the next 12 months. This matches the worst ever levels in 44 years of tracking (in 2008 and 1980). Boris Johnson’s leader ratings recover to pre partygate levels, but 6 in 10 are still dissatisfied. Labour retains a 4 point lead (down from 9 points in January).

Economic optimism

76% think the economy will worsen in the next 12 months (+20 points from January), 14% think it will improve (-13 points from January). This gives an Ipsos Economic Optimism Index of -62, the worst score since July 2008. In January it was -29. Economic optimism is weaker than at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. 69% expected the economy to worsen over the next year in March 2020. It is also weaker than in October 1992 when it stood at 60%. The only times Ipsos has recorded similar levels of economic pessimism are January 1980 (74%) and July 2008 (75%).

Leader satisfaction

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s satisfaction ratings have improved from his record low last month. 31% are satisfied with the job Mr Johnson is doing as Prime Minister (+7 points from January) and 59% are dissatisfied (down 11 points). In November – before the partygate story broke – his scores were 34% satisfied and 61% dissatisfied.

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